Is economic worst now behind us?

We're now more than halfway through a year that everybody knew was going to be brutal.

The winds of a global recession, a tight credit environment, unemployment and cautious consumers have joined forces to cloud the Canadian economy.

As bad as it is, Alberta has still managed to be in just a little better shape than many other parts of the country.

It's that Alberta attitude: Never let them see you sweat. Grin and bear it. That can-do spirit permeates the province's economy --and a big factor, too, is our oil and gas industry.

Sure, there have been victims; plenty of companies who fought the good fight have lost. But it could have been a lot worse.

Early on, economic experts forecast that Alberta wouldn't be hit so dramatically by the downturn and that it would be among the first regions to come out of it.

From a housing perspective, things have been turning around for the past two or three months.

Builders, while nowhere near construction levels of two years ago, are seeing a steady increase in show home traffic and sales.

On the resale side, sales and prices have been moving up since January--at the same time that inventory has been declining.

There is buyer interest out there. It's just going to take a while longer to put this whole downturn thing to bed.

"A quick turnaround in the economy is not expected in 2010, unless commodity prices rebound sufficiently to revive capital investment," says Richard Corriveau of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

That weaker investment, along with lower housing construction starts, will have implications for Alberta's ability to provide jobs, he says. "In 2009, average employment will fall for the first time in 17 years. Such conditions will inhibit inter-provincial migration to Alberta until employment prospects improve," Corriveau says in CMHC's outlook for April to June. On the up side, he expects migration to improve "in lockstep" with modest economic and employment recovery next year. CMHC figures show that 38,000 people will likely relocate to Alberta this year, climbing to 46,000 in 2010.

And so, with the silver lining likely beginning to brighten next year, the housing picture will also start to improve.

Builders are currently working hard to stimulate sales activity through various incentives, while taking advantage of record-low mortgage rates to get hesitant buyers off the fence. "In 2010, declining inventory, combined with recent price declines, will present an opportunity for higher (construction) starts," says Corriveau.

In its outlook report, CMHC expects work will start on 9,700 detached homes this year, along with 4,000 multi-family units.

Next year, those numbers will likely climb to 11,500 and 4,700, respectively.

Again, such estimates are below what the housing industry had previously been accustomed to, but in the long run, these are probably more manageable numbers. Things are getting better. There has been a decided boost in consumer confidence --a sign people now believe the worst might be behind them.

With eight lot deposits in his pocket--without benefit of show homes--Heritage Pointe development manager Ted Stack is preparing to break ground on the final phase of the award-winning golf course/residential community just south of Calgary.

He says heavy equipment could be at The Ranche at Heritage Pointe in early August to begin site work for the 33 single-family homes that will make up the community.

mhope@theherald.canwest.com   © Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald