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RBC Predicts Recession will End next Quarter

Royal Bank of Canada has become the first of the country's major banks to officially predict the recession will end in the third quarter as fiscal and monetary stimuli begin to heal the economy.

With housing resales up, manufacturing declines slowing and the third quarter just two weeks away, Canada can look forward to better times ahead, the bank said.

But despite the return to growth, Paul Ferley, the assistant chief economist at RBC Capital Markets, said it would take until next year for the recovery to gain full momentum and for consumers to cast aside their caution.

RBC said Monday the Canadian economy would emerge from three quarters of decline with a mild, but nevertheless positive, annualized growth rate of 0.8% in the third quarter followed by 2.4% in the fourth quarter. At the same time, it predicts the United States to end its four quarters of malaise with growth of 0.5% and 2.6%, respectively.

CMHC Spring 2009: Housing Market Outlook-Edmonton CMA

New Home Market

After exceeding 11,000 units for five successive years from 2002 to 2007, total housing starts across the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) declined by nearly 56 per cent in 2008. Housing starts across Metro are forecast to decline by 51 per cent this year to 3,250 units.

Resale Market

Following a 15 per cent decline in 2008, existing home sales will fall by another 16.5 per cent this year before staging a moderate come back in 2010.

Rental Market

Edmonton's rental apartment vacancies will trend higher in 2009 despite few rental starts. CMHC's fall 2009 Rental Market Survey is expected to find an overall vacancy rate across the Edmonton region of close to four per cent compared with an average 2.4 per cent reading in the October 2008 survey. New rental supply is arriving in the secondary market rather than from traditional sources of purpose-built apartment units. Supply in the secondary market is coming from investors who have decided to rent out their units rather than sell them at reduced profits (or losses).

Market Watch - May 2009

The Canadian housing market has recorded an increasing number of sales in most areas around the country for a second month in a row.

Low interest rates and slightly lower home prices have resulted in increased momentum on a month-over-month basis; however, April sales remained lower than 2008 levels.

BC-Surrey

The Fraser Valley real estate market continues to show signs of rebalancing with the number of sales increasing for the third month in a row while the number of listings stayed relatively constant.

April 2008 - 1787 sales
April 2009 - 1293 sales (28% decrease from last year but 29% more than March 2009)
April 2008 - 4458 listings
April 2009 – 2477 listings (44% decrease from April 2008)

47 Years of Edmonton Statistics

Many statistics, especially real estate statistics, seem to being thrown around in the media, by realtors, brokers, economists and the like, and particularly in this apparently declining market place. Since statistics can be strongly swayed from one view point to another depending on the time frames you use, currently, mainly because it ‘sells’, the majority of reports and conversations seem to be dwelling on the current economic crisis and how this has substantially impacted housing prices in a negative way.

I recently stumbled across an extremely useful, detailed and interactive spreadsheet that not only provides the user with the actual numbers behind the statistic but also allows you to analyze and gage the numbers to your specific needs and criteria. The spreadsheet incorporates the historical price data from the Edmonton Real Estate Board, EREB, and runs off the monthly trailing averages. Chris Davies, who has a great real estate blog that’s updated daily, then put all this data into a Google Docs spreadsheet for “cool investors like us to use” he says.

Edmonton Stats

The Not-So Effortless Entrepreneur

Dan Barton's keynote to the Victoria Prodigy Chamber of Commerce group.

Good evening prodigy chamber members and guests.

Who here would like to create more wealth and prosperity in their lives?

Who here would like to do that with early any effort at all?

Well, if this is a room of entrepreneurs and business owners, then I’m sorry to say, I think were all in the wrong room! Since I bet we have all experienced that entrepreneurship can sometimes be far from effortless.

Since, to this day I still have to meet an entrepreneur who hasn’t put a ton of time, energy & money into growing the company, an idea, a thought.

I have come believe; that it’s for the perceived freedom, that entrepreneurship and business ownership offers, that lures so many in.

It’s commonly a belief that freedom doesn’t come easy and freedom doesn’t come cheap. To entrepreneurs freedom comes to those who are willing to persevere their time, energy and money and risk it all on a thought, on an idea.

2008 proved to be an ‘interesting’ year. I had the wonderful opportunity & was blessed to receive the Young Entrepreneur of the Year award from the Chamber of Commerce. I also had the opportunity, as did many of you, to see every stock market and real estate market around the world take a nice steady decline.

Some called it a roller coaster of a life time.

Four Equations to Building a Successful Business

My clients are often astonished when they meet me for the first time. Basically they’re surprised that I own a successful real estate investment business and I’m the ripe old age of 24. Better yet, I’ve been the owner of Oasis Properties for less than 3 years and have gone from being roughly $30,000 in debt to now having over 7 million in assets as of writing this article (2007). I’m a perfect example of the lesson of not judging a book by its cover! My business is thriving despite all the naysayer’s supposed advice when I first started out on this path. I’m of the opinion that my company has achieved the success it has through my own strong beliefs in myself combined with a strong sense of personal integrity, which I strictly adhere to in all my personal and business dealings.

I am also a firm believer in sharing and giving back to the world in any manner that I can, so that others may benefit from my experiences - both my successes and mistakes. I refuse to use the word failure, as in my opinion failures are mistakes that one has never learned anything from. People make mistakes every day – it just depends on whether or not you gain insight as to why you made it that counts. Personally I believe if you are afraid to make a mistake this means that you’re not pushing yourself out of your ‘comfort’ zone enough and trying new methods or ways to better succeed. You’re stuck in ‘safe’ mode and being too comfortable means you’re not moving forward to realizing your dreams. In other words, you need to conquer your fear of making mistakes in order to succeed.

For those of you who are looking to build a successful business venture, I’ve jotted down the 4 key reasons why my business has become so successful in such a short time to share with you. Here is what may be a familiar quote that sums up my core values:

Don’t Let Fear Hold You Back From Real Estate Investing

Are you petrified of losing your shirt, pants, socks AND shoes by investing in real estate? Are you terrified of purchasing your dream property for fear of finding out that it was the prototype for the movie “The Money Pit”? Or, is one of your biggest fears that you will actually succeed in your real estate venture beyond your wildest dreams?

Instead of letting fear hold you back from taking that first small step and getting your feet wet, consider this statement: fear is an instinct designed to keep up alive but not to control us. How can you overcome your fears and be successful in real estate? Well, let me tell you how I’ve done it.

Get out of ‘analysis paralysis’ and just do it!

First, gather up all available information about the property that you’re looking to invest in and then take a leap of faith and go for it. I’m not suggesting that you run out and buy the first house for sale on the block or the property with the really gorgeous landscaped front yard. You still need to do your homework first which includes getting a qualified appraisal; a full property inspection; get pre-qualified from a lending institution; and have your down payment sitting in your bank account. When you have each one of these factors in place and are ready to go, the right property is already yours for the taking (or buying) and is waiting for you to show up and sign the purchase agreement.

Easter Seals 24 Hour Relay 2009

Easter Seals 24 Hour Relay is an annual community based fundraising event that challenges groups of people to run or walk Relay-style for 24 hour, and is produced by the BC Lions Society for Children with Disabilities. Teams of runners and/or walkers made up of Corporate and Recreational groups collect individual pledges or organize team fundraising events to raise funds towards their collective team totals. Every dollar raised helps send disabled children to Camp Shawinigan!

Oasis Properties has participated for the last three years as part of “Team Carebearz,” and this year, raised a total of $15,500 this year! A big thank you goes out to those who pledged their support for our fundraising team this year, as this now brings our running total over the past three years to over $37,000 raised! For the past 3 years we have won the #1 Small Business Fundraising Team position, and this year we came in as the overall #3 fundraising team. We look forward to participating next year!

Former CIBC Economist Jeff Rubin on CBC’s The Hour

Here’s the episode of CBC’s The Hour with George Strombolopolus with former CIBC World Markets Chief Economist Jeff Rubin. The folks at REIN kindly made it available. Rubin wrote a book called Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization and it sounds like an interesting read. If you have read it, let us know how it was by making a comment! I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Why Real Estate Investing is Risky... Or Is It?

Most unsophisticated financial planners will tell you that investing in real estate is risky because of low rates of return; it ties up your capital for a long period of time, and possible tenant problems from rental properties; depreciation of property values.

Say it isn’t so!

In the long run, real estate has always appreciated in value simply because they’re not making any more land. The population growth is rising and consequently land is being snapped up quicker than Dorothy’s heels clicked in Kansas. Some of the ways to assess the risk factor of investing in real estate is to look at the fundamentals such as migration patterns (immigration from other countries); in migration (moving within the country itself); job explosions in certain areas of the country which create a shortage of available housing, and reasonable interest rates from financial institutions. All these factors affect investing in real estate – and for the good.